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Oddsmaker sizing up Billboard controversy

by fredo
on 3/31/2011 @ 9:26am
Now that we can see there is zero public support for the Clear Channel settlement offer it should be apparent that it's only a matter of time until city council support begins to unravel. The withdrawal of council support will only require 5 votes once the issue is placed on the council agenda. Which councilmember will be the first to break ranks and declare they have changed their position and no longer support the settlement? I'm no professional oddsmaker but here is my evaluation:

Dave Boe 3/20
Marty 3/20
Mello 3/20
Lonergan 3/20
Walker 2/20
Fey 2/20
Manthou 2/20
Woodards 1/20
Strickland 1/20

by NineInchNachos on 3/31/2011 @ 9:48am
can somebody explain this system? I'm not a betting man. What would 100% support of the settlement look like ? Lonergan loves billboards like water for chocolate

by fredo on 3/31/2011 @ 10:01am
multiply the numerator by 5 and you will get the percentage chance that I believe that the particular elected official will be the first to change sides. I have predicted for example that there is a 60% likelihood that the first official will be Boe, Campbell, Mello, or Lonergan. 10% likelihood that it will be Woodards or Strickland.

Just to make sure I don't run afoul of any ethics provisions I should point out that this exercise is just for fun. You will not be receiving an all-expenses trip to visit friends in Korea.